EXERCISE SCENARIO AND SETTING

 BACKGROUND

Exercise Cooperative Best Effort 05 is based on a fictitious scenario tailored to meet the exercise training objectives. All dates are approximate and will be finalized IAW the approved exercise timeline. The actual map of Ukraine will be used for exercise operations and will be administratively called “ORKLAND”. An overlay will provide the fictitious borders and other pertinent exercise situation.

1.      AREA OF OPERATION (Map)

The area of operations is a large Area called ORKLAND, divided in two countries, HOBBILAND and ELFLAND.

2.      HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT

Elfland is situated North of Hobbiland, but in ancient times both countries formed only one, named Orkland. Orkland was formed in the 15th Century by the reunification of three former Kingdoms. It stayed as a single country until 1835, when they were facing a civil war, due to political and territorial disputes between the two main ethnic groups in the country, the Elfics and the Hobbies:

a. The Elfics, who occupy ELFLAND and most of the DNISTER Region in HOBBILAND.

b.  The Hobbies occupy HOBBILAND, There are very few Hobbies in ELFLAND, but there are huge colonies in other neighbouring countries, such as MESLAND, HUNLAND and RAYLAND.

Since the end of the civil war in 1838, won by the Hobbies, and in accordance with the signature the Kiev ’s Treaty, the two actual countries were formed.  Both countries hosted most of their own ethnical population, but there was a zone in the Western part of Hobbiland (DNISTER) with a big Elfic population that refused to move to Elfland but struggled to get their province in Elfland before the Treaty.

Since then, both countries have evolved in different directions. Hobbiland has always been a commercial country and has become a wealthy pro-occidental State. They have had a democratic government since 1845, after a short transition period after the Civil War.

Hobbiland is a member of the United Nations and is in process for accession to NATO.

On the other hand, Elfland has suffered a great political and economic instability since the end of the Civil War. They installed a kingdom in 1839, whose dynasty, the Ausborns’, reined for almost 90 years. In 1928, a revolution took place in the country and the National Elfic Party established a dictatorship. Their Leader, Mr. Bebo Valdinsky, started claiming on the Elfics right on the DNISTER Province , accusing the Hobbie Government of mistreating the Elfic minority in that region.

Due to their ethnic differences, the relations between Elfland and Hobbiland are difficult and there have been several border clashes all over the recent history, mainly in the Western Area.

In 1934, the Elfics tried to occupy the DNISTER area, but, after three months of war, the Hobbies liberated the zone. However, they let the Elfic minority live in the region, though they had slightly supported Elfland’s invasion.

After the war, and in accordance with the Peace Treaty signed in L’viv, Elfland’s claims were partly forgotten due to a sort of smooth loans Elfland received from Hobbiland.

During the post-war decades (1934-1998), the Elfland’s Government, even facing a disastrous economic situation, diverted part of its budget in military expenses, acquiring modern weapons and equipment on a regular basis.

Since 2001, the economical situation in Elfland worsened due to their weak banking system and some corruption incidents amongst high-rank officials that could also affect the current president, Mr. Piotr Gansky. The situation of civilian population in Elfland faced a drastic change. The government, that had already started a slight move towards a liberal market economy, stepped back.

In consequence, decreasing of the rate of GDP, the high prizes of agricultural products has caused quite serious problems in both the health and education spheres. The last infrastructures were made in the late 80’s and early 90’s.

To divert people from their possible unrest actions, the Elfland Government accused Hobbiland of not accomplishing what was signed in the bi-lateral treaties. It also started claiming their ancestral rights on the DNISTER Area, a rich zone that could decrease their economical problems, should it belong to Elfland.

The DNISTER region possesses the most developed industrial potential of the western region of Hobbiland. The most effective directions of industrial production are mining chemistry and oil processing. In that region operate the only enterprises in Hobbiland producing mineral and potassium fertilizers.

The agricultural industry in DNISTER possesses almost 1300 thousand Ha of arable lands that make up almost a 10% of all Hobbiland.  Most of these lands, as well as most of the enterprises aforementioned, belong to Hobbie people, while the Elfic minority occupies the lower layers in those organizations.

So, Elfland also accused Hobbiland of exploiting the Elfic minority in DNISTER. As a result, the Elfic National Party Council launched an information campaign against the Hobbiland alleged attacks on the Elfic minority, urging the people to support their political efforts.

Elfland population is predominantly Elfic, (92%) and Longic, located in the East (7%).  There is a very little presence of Hobbies on the Hobbiland border, next to L’viv.  

A major strategic concern to the conflict for Elfland is the access to the mining chemistry plants, located in DNISTER, that could be used for NBC purposes should they fall into wrong hands.

At the beginning of 2002, some of the Elfic inhabitants of the DNISTER Region claimed for autonomy for their region and for more control on the DNISTER enterprises. At the same time, some Hobbie interests in the zone were attacked by a newly–formed extremist group, named EDLA (Elfic Dnister Liberation Army). As they committed the first attacks, some reprisal actions took place against the Elfic minority in DNISTER.

In 2003, a total of 28 people from Hobbiland, mostly local politicians, were allegedly shot dead by the EDLA Group. As a result of retaliations, 8 Elfic minority people were also killed in several arsons and shootouts against Elfic shops and houses. This escalation led to an increase in the number of EDLA members, coming from both the Elfic Community in DNISTER and some Elfland nationals.

At the same time, Elfland accused Hobbiland of fostering ethnic cleansing against their minority in DNISTER and ordered a raising of its Rapid Intervention Forces.

The United Nations Security Council signed the UN Resolution 6846, in December 2003, calling both countries to solve their differences by diplomatic means and prevent further escalation of violence and destabilization in the region.

At the beginning of January 2004, Elfland Armed Forces started to occupy some positions along the border with Hobbiland. Since then, some sporadic clashes occurred between Elfland and Hobbiland Armed Forces.

On 19 February 2004, the Elfland Air Force launched an air strike against Hobbiland’s airports and Air Bases in L’viv, Kirovorhad and Donestk.  The following day, two Airborne Battalions debarked in L’viv International Airport. Although they found great resistance, the local population’s support was determining and they could keep their positions.    

On 22 February 2004, the debarked units were reinforced, and new units were debarked in Cherkasy. In total, two reinforced Divisions were already on the occupied areas and reached, after a weak resistance, the following line:

LVIV – RIVNO – VINNYTSYA – UMAN – KIROVORHAD – DHIPOPETROSK – DONETSK .

From the first attacks on 19 February, Hobbiland denounced Elfland’s aggression and claimed for an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council. Some countries that belonged to NATO, such as Rayland, Hunland, Molland and Mesland, supported this claim. Maxland stayed neutral.

Hartland didn’t make any official statement on this attack, though it reinforced its border troops all along the border with Elfland.

During the United Nations Security Council meeting, held on 28 February 2004, a stalemate was all they got, due to Longland’s opposition to sign a condemnation statement against Elfland’s invasion.

Some NATO members, such as Mesland and Hunland, started to organize a multinational coalition with the objective of supporting Hobbiland. In March 2004, some fighters from these two countries realized two attacks against Elfland positions in RIVNO and DONETSK , causing casualties and damages to Elfland’s defensive positions. The ongoing retaliation actions from the Elfic Armed Forces (including paramilitary and police forces) destroyed villages and houses, which resulted in large numbers of civilian casualties, as well as large-scale displacement and ethnical cleansing.

The wide support that both Elfland Forces and the EDLA receive from the local Elfic minority in the DNISTER Region, mainly in the L’viv area, and the possibility of more displaced Hobbie people from that zone, forced the NATO Alliance to disapprove any intent of recovery of the lost terrain by Hobbiland.

The perspective of a multinational crisis alarmed both Longland and NATO, so, on 6 April 2004, a cease-fire agreement was attained in Zhytomyr, after some bi-lateral conversations between Longland and Elfland authorities.  From then on, the new line has stayed as it was formed after first Elfland strikes.

The cease-fire agreement contemplated the deployment of a Peace Enforcement Force all along the new Border Line. It was accepted from both countries that these Forces would belong to NATO countries. This plan was accepted by the United Nations, only until a solution were found to the border issue and the already Hobbie displaced people from the DNISTER region. Nevertheless, the EDLA announced that they would attack any Allied asset entering the DNISTER region.

On 30 April 2004, the United Nations Resolution 7904 condemned Elfland’s violations against Hobbiland sovereignty and requested UN members to lead a Peace Enforcement Operation to implement the military aspects of the cease-fire agreement and to assist humanitarian operations.

After several meetings, the United Nations signed the UN Resolution 7907, on 11 May 2004, addressing the Call for a NATO led Peace Enforcement Force (ORKFOR)

On 15 May 2004 NAC (NATO Atlantic Council) decided to employ the NATO RESPONSE FORCE (NRF) in Hobbiland.

On 25 May 04: Deployment of ORKFOR. According to NAC decision, the ‘door is opened’ for Partner Nations to take part in the operation led By NATO Response Force in Hobbiland. Force Generation Conference was scheduled for all NATO Countries by the beginning of June. 

On 06 Jun 04, NATO ORKFOR started its operation in Hobbiland, sending a first wave to L’viv Airport, and securing the Air Base. The deployment of the first wave finished on July 15th, 2004.

On 15 Jun 05, after the establishment of the Buffer Zone, the Follow-On Forces will deploy in the AOR. These FOF will comprise three Brigades, deployed in Hobbiland, whose main mission will be maintain safe and secure environment in the Area and keep Warring Factions off the Buffer Zone.

The Elfic Dnister Liberation Army (EDLA) group was founded in 2002 by a group of extremist Elfic hardliners dissatisfied with the moderate nationalism of the traditional Dnister Elfic Party (DEP).

The group's aim is the creation of an independent homeland in HOBBILAND’S Dnister region. The group has a loose commitment to Marxism.

EDLA’s membership is believed to be quite small, perhaps no more than 30 hard-core activists and several hundred supporters.

The organization's non-hierarchical structure is difficult for the authorities to penetrate. Its members operate in small self-sufficient cells with only the most tenuous links with the organization's leadership. While EDLA is operationally headquartered in the Dnister province of HOBBILAND , the organization is reported to have members and underground supporters in locations as diverse as Algeria , Cape Verde , Cuba , Ecuador , Germany , Holland , Italy , Mexico , Netherlands , Spain , Elfland, Longland and Venezuela . Their targets are governmental infrastructures, civilians, returnees, and Hobbiland institutions with clear aim to create a destabilizing climate and provoke the failure of the ZHYTOMYR Cease-fire agreement.

EDLA’s violent campaign began with an attempt to derail a train transporting local politicians to a political meeting in Yavoriv.

EDLA’s most spectacular success was the assassination in March 2004 of Mr. Boris Trukinsky, leader of the Dnister Elfic Party. Mr. Trukinsky was seen as a traitor of Dnister Independence having him signed cooperation agreements with the National Hobbiland Party. EDLA is able to use chemical or bacteriological weapons and the likelihood of ROTA (Release other than attack) actions against civilian or unprotected targets is assessed MEDIUM. These paramilitary formations are assessed to have the size of some hundreds. They are well equipped with modern weapons and use the “hit and run” guerrilla war tactic starting from very well hidden bases in mountain areas. Their targets are governmental infrastructures against which sabotage actions and terrorist attacks are directed.

They have some sanctuaries or training camps in the Dnister territory and some operative bases in the mountainous area of the Carpathian Mountains .